State of the Planet
BY MATILDA LEE
After three decades of talks, promises and proposals, and over 300 international environmental treaties, The Ecologist asks, on the eve of the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg, what has really been achieved in addressing our environmental and social problems.
Climate change
The official statements
'It is recommended that Government be mindful of activities in which there is an appreciable risk of effects on climate.' (UN Conference on the Human Environment, Stockholm, 1972)
'Governments should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind.' (UN Conference on Environment and Development, Rio, 1992)
The official promises
'Annex I Parties [of industrialised countries] commit to… the aim of returning individually or jointly to their 1990 levels of … anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases..[by the year 2000].
(Rio, 1992)
'The ultimate objective of this Convention is to achieve…stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
(Stockholm, 1997)
The reality
By 2000, CO2 emissions had risen 18.1 per cent above 1990 levels in the US by 10.7 per cent in Japan; 12.8 per cent in Canada and 28.8 per cent in Australia.
Atmospheric CO2 concentration levels are 30 per cent higher today than in pre-industrial times, rising from 281 per million by volume (ppmv) in 1800, to 327 in 1972, 356 in 1992, and 367 in 2002.
As a result, climate changes is now happening with dramatic consequences. The 1990s were the warmest decade since written records began.
If nothing continues to be done, the UN's intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that temperatures could rise by a global average of 5.8oc (10.4oF) by 2100.
Deforestation
The statements
'International organisations should given positive advice to member countries on the important role of forests..' (Stockholm, 1972).
'Forests would wide have been and are being threatened by uncontrolled degradation… The present situation calls for urgent and consistent action for conserving and sustaining forest resources.' (Rio, 1992)
The proposals
'National policies and strategies should provide a framework for increased effort… for the management, conservation and sustainable development of forests and forest lands.'
(Rio, 1992)
'All parties..shall…promote and cooperate in the conservation and enhancement….of forest.' (Rio, 1992)
The reality
Half of the world's original forest cover has now been destroyed. Over 60 per cent of temperate broadleaf and mixed forests have been lost; about 45 per cent of tropical moist forests; and approximately 70 per cent of tropical dry forests.
Remaining forests are being depleted by about 160,000 km2- or half the size of Norway-every year, 11 countries are on the verge of losing their forests completely and 28 have forestland that is threatened.
Given that forest vegetation and soils sequester, or hold, about 40 per cent of the globe's terrestrial carbon, deforestation has contributed to about 30 per cent of the atmospheric build-up of CO2 over the past 150 years.
The burning of forests is the second largest cause of carbon released into the atmosphere after the burning of fossil fuels.
481m ha of natural forest have been lost worldwide over the last 30 years- a ten per cent loss since 1972-
according to the UN Environment Programme.
If current deforestation rates continue, many of the 50 to 90 per cent of the Earth's species that live in forests will be lost by the middle of the 21st century.
Loss of fresh water
The statements
'The basic objective of all water resource use… is to ensure the best use of water and to avoid its pollution in each country…'
(Stockholm, 1972)
'As populations and economic activities grow, many countries are rapidly reaching conditions of water scarcity… The holistic management of freshwater as a finite and vulnerable resource..[is] of paramount importance for action I the 1990s and beyond.' (Rio, 1992)
The goals
'The general objective is to make certain that adequate supplies of water of good quality are maintained for the entire population of this planet…' (Rio, 1992)
'All States could… initiate programmes for the protection, conservation and rational use of [surface and groundwater] resources on a sustainable basis…' (Rio, 1992)
The reality
There has been a 175 per cent increase over the last 30 years in global freshwater withdrawals by agriculture (which is responsible for 70 per cent of global freshwater consumption), rising 1,850 km3 in 1970 to 3,250 km3 in 2000.
Global consumption of water is doubling every 20 years, more that twice the rate of human population growth.
According to the UN, 41 per cent of the world's population, some 2.3bn people, live in 'water-stressed' areas- where water shortages are frequent.
In 2002, water shortages killed over 7m people.
By 2007, the demand for fresh water is expected to rise by 56 per cent more that is currently available, causing two in every three people on the planet to face water scarcity.
According to the UN, about 1.2bn people worldwide drink polluted water, causing hundreds of millions of cases of water-related diseases every year and over 5m deaths-ten times the number of people killed in wars worldwide.
6,000 children die every day from drinking polluted water.
(Stockholm 1972) refers to The UN Conference On The Human Environment, Stockholm, 1972. (Rio 1992) refers to The UN Conference on Environment and Development, Rio, 1992.
Land degradation
The statements
'The natural resources of the earth, including the land… must be safeguarded for the benefit of present and future generations through careful planning or management…'
(Stockholm, 1972)
'Land degradations is the most important environmental problem affecting extensive areas of land in both developed and developing countries. The problem of soil erasion is particularly acute in developing countries, while problems of…. loss of soil fertility are increasing in all countries.' (Rio, 1992)
The goal
'Governments should…formulate, introduce and monitor policies, laws and regulations and incentives leading to sustainable agriculture…' (Rio, 1992)
'It is urgent to arrest land degradation and launch conservation and rehabilitation programmes in the most critically affected and vulnerable areas.' (Rio, 1992)
The Reality
About 2bn hectares of soil, equivalent to 15 per cent of the earth's land area (an area larger than the US and Mexico combined), have been degraded by intensive agriculture and other human activities.
Globally, each year, there continues to be a net loss of 26bn tons of soil from erosion, human induced desertification encroaches on 6m ha of once productive land; and up to 2.5m ha of prime agricultural land are abandoned because of salinisation (due to large-scale irrigation).
In total, an estimated 552m ha, or around 38 per cent of current global cultivated area, have been degraded by unsustainable agricultural practices between 1945 and 1990 (with soil erosion accounting for 84 per cent of degraded areas)
The worldwide loss of productivity due to soil erosion alone is estimated to be the equivalent of 20m tons of grain per year.
Support for organic, soil conserving forms of agriculture accounts for only 2 per cent of the total agricultural budgets in industralised countries.
Worldwide, government subsidies for industrial forms of agriculture amount to more that $313bn each year.
World
grain-harvested area per person has declined from around 0.17ha in 1972
to .12ha in 1996.
Biodiversity loss
The statements
'Man has a special responsibility to safeguard and wisely manage the heritage of wildlife and its habitat…' (Stockholm, 1972)
'The current decline in biodiversity is largely the result of human activity and represents a serious threat to human development (Rio, 1992)
The goals
'The objectives of this Convention… are the conservation of biological diversity, [and] the sustainable use of its components.' (United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), Rio, 1992)
50-100 species are vanishing every day- 10,000 times faster than natural extinction rates; faster than at any time in the last 65m years.
The reality
Since 1970, according to the WWF, there has been a 54 per cent decline in the populations of 195 freshwater species (living in rivers and wetlands); a 35 per cent decline in the populations of 217 marine species; and a 15 per cent decline in the populations of 282 forest species.
Today, around 27 per cent of the world's coral reefs (home to one quarter of all ocean species) are threatened, up from 10 per cent a decade ago.
Food variety is being lost too : 80 per cent of tomato varieties and 92 per cent of lettuce varieties have been lost in the 20th Century.
The UN states that 11,046 species of plants and animals are currently endangered. These include 1,130 mammals (24 per cent of the total), and 1,183 species of bird (12 per cent of the total), as well as 5,611 species of plants.
In 1995, the illegal trade in wildlife was estimated to be worth over $5bn- the second largest illegal trade in the world after drugs.
If current trends in species extinction continue, we may lose half of all the Earth's plant and animal species in just 50 years time.
Fisheries depletion
The statements
'States shall take all possible steps to prevent pollution of the seas by substances that are liable to… harm living resources and marine life.' (Stockholm, 1972)
The promises
'States commit themselves to the conservation and sustainable use of marine living resources under national jurisdiction… [and] on the high seas.' (Rio, 1992)
There has been a doubling in global fish catch over the last 35 years, reaching 137m tons today. As a result, according to the UN, half of all fisheries are fully depleted and another 25 per cent are over-fished.
The reality
Fisheries such as the Atlantic cod, haddock, Capelin, Atlantic herring and Southern African pilchard have either collapsed or are harvested at unsustainable levels.
It is estimated that world commercial fishing capacity is in excess of up to 150 per cent of what is seen to be sustainable. WWF notes that government subsidies to the fishing industry equal some $15bn per year (equivalent to around 20 per cent of the total landed value of the world's commercial fish catch).
Ships discharge up to 50m toms of oil at sea every year (mainly from washing out tar from ships' tanks oil spills).
Nuclear waste & radiation
The statements
'Governments should… support and expand international co-operation of radioactive waste problems…' (Stockholm, 1972)
'The safe and environmentally sound management of radioactive wastes, including their minimisation, transportation and disposal, is important, given their characteristics.' (Rio, 1992)
The goals
'States should… promote policies and practical measures to minimise and limit the generation of radioactive wastes and provide for their safe processing, conditioning, transportation and disposal.' (Rio, 1992)
Since 1970, between 250 and 500 kilograms of plutonium have been discharged into the lrish Sea from the Sellafied nuclear reprocessing planet, making it the most radioactively contaminated sea in the world.
The reality
Annual spent fuel (the most radioactive type of waste) from nuclear power plants in OECD countries has almost doubled from 4,391 tonnes in 1982 to 8,362 tonnes in 1995.
In 2000, the total global stockpile of spent nuclear fuel was 220,000 tonnes and it is growing by approximately 10,000 tonnes each year, according to the international Atomic Agency.
Annually a further 200,000 cubic metres of low-level and intermediate-level waste is generated globally from nuclear power production, according to the UN. Some of the nuclear waste dumping grounds are now leaking, contaminating nearly soil and water supplies.
Over 400 nuclear bomb factories and power plants worldwide make routine discharges of radioactive waste into the environment.
Cancer clusters have been found around nuclear plants worldwide. A US government study found a high incidence of 22 different types of cancer at 14 different US nuclear weapons facilities across the country.
Sellafield alone produce enough plutonium annually to make 1000 4kg nuclear bombs. The risk of terrorist bomb-making is real. In Europe, between 1992 and 1998, 173 attempted nuclear-related thefts, including of bomb-making material, were reported.
Chemical pollution
The statements
'The discharge of toxic substances… in such quantities or concentrations as to exceed the capacity of the environment to render them harmless, must be halted in order to ensure that serious or irreversible damage is not inflicted upon ecosystems.' (Stockholm 1972)
The goals
'Governments….should…undertake concerted activities to reduce risks for toxic chemicals…. These activities could encompass… the phasing out or banning of toxic chemicals that post an unreasonable and otherwise unmanageable risk to the environment or human health, and those that are toxic, persistent and bio-accumulative…' (Rio, 1992)
'By the year 2000, national systems for environmentally sound management of chemicals, including legislation and provisions for implementation and enforcement, should be in place in all countries….' (Rio, 1992)
The reality
Global sales of chemicals have increased almost ninefold since 1970: from $171bn in 1970 to almost $1.5 trillion in 1998. Between 70,000 and 100,000 chemicals are currently on the world market and 1,500 new chemicals are being introduced each year.
Pesticides have become between 10 and 100 times more toxic than in the mid 1970s, and their use results in between 3.5m to 5m acute poisonings a year.
According to the WorldWatch Institute, there are no basic health and environmental data for 71 per cent of the most widely-used chemicals in the United States, and less than 10 per cent of new chemicals reviewed each year have adequate test data in health effects.
The World Health Organisation estimates that 25 per cent of all preventable ill health in the world is due to environmental factors, including exposure to hazardous chemicals.
Childhood cancer (including brain tumours and leukaemia) in the US is increasing by one per cent per year and is now the second leading cause of death in children aged one to 14.
Rates of testicular cancer have tripled, prostate cancer rates have doubled and sperm counts have fallen by 50 per cent among European and American men since 1950.
Breast cancer afflicted one in eight women in developed countries in 1993, compared to one in 20 in 1960.
Waste creation & disposal
The statements and goals
'States should reduce and eliminate unsustainable patterns of production and consumption…' (Rio, 1992)
'Governments should, by the year 2000, promote sufficient financial and technological capacities at the regional, national and local levels to implement waste reuse and recycling policies and actions…' (Rio, 1992)
'Governments should initiate programmes to achieve sustained minimisation of waste generation…' (Rio, 1992)
The reality
Two-thirds of waste is dumped into landfill sites (in the EU in 1996, there were 8,700 landfill sites storing 1.2bn tonnes of waste)- producing emissions of the greenhouse gas methane and contaminating groundwater.
Pregnant women living within 2 kilometers of a landfill site have been found to have a higher risk of having a baby with a congenital defect.
Many countries have now turned to incineration to deal with their growing waste problems-causing dangerous emission of dioxins (a Class 1 human carcinogen), heavy metals and acid gases
According to the British Foods Standards Agency, one third of the UK population regularly consumes food that contains unsafe levels of dioxins.
Another UK study found that cancer deaths among children living in communities neighbouring municipal waste incinerators had doubled between 1974 and 1987.
Many countries, including Japan, France, Britain, Ireland, Greece and Mexico still recycle less than 12 per cent of their household waste.
The United States still throws away enough aluminium to replace its entire commercial aircraft fleet every three months.
On current trends, the OECD predicts a further 70 to 100 per cent increase in waste generation in industrialised countries by 2020 and a 200 per cent increase in developing countries.
In the past 20 years, municipal waste generated per person in industrialised countries has increased almost threefold, to an average of 475 kilos per person per year.
Health epidemics
The statements
'Man had the fundamental right to… adequate conditions of life, in an environmental of a quality that permits a life of dignity and well-being… (Stockhold, 1972).
The goals
'Goals [that] are recommended for implementation by all countries [include].. by the year 2000….to mobilize and unify national and international efforts against AIDS to prevent infection and to reduce the personal and social impact of HIV; to contain the resurgence of tuberculosis, with particular emphasis on multiple antibiotic resistant forms.' (Rio, 1992)
The reality
Death from HIV/AIDS jumped more than sixfold worldwide over the past decade, from just over a half-million in 1990 to over 3 million in 2000. Nearly four out of five of these deaths occurred in sub-Saharan Africa.'
Deaths
from HIV/AIDS jumped more than sixfold worldwide over the past
decade
There were an estimated 8.4m new cases of tuberculosis in 1999, up from 8.om new cases in 1997, largely due to a 20 per cent increase in incidence in African countries.
Malaria caused 1.08m deaths worldwide in 2000, up from 0.86m in 1990. Children in Africa under the age of five make up a significant share of these deaths.
Poverty
The Statements
'Millions continue to live far below the minimum levels required for a decent human existence… the industrialized countries countries should make efforts to reduce the gap between themselves and the developing countries.' (Stockholm, 1972)
The promises
'All States and all people shall co-operate in the essential task of eradicating poverty…. in order to decrease the disparities in standards of living and better meet the needs of the majority of the people of the world.' (Rio, 1992)
The reality
The number of people living in poverty (defined as living on less than a dollar a day) over the last decade has increased by 100m, according to the former Chief Economist of the World Bank, Joseph Stiglitz, to 1.3bn people (over a fifth of the world's population).
A further 1.6bn (another quarter of the world's population) survive on less than two dollars.
The UN forecasts that another 100m people will live on less than a dollar a day by 2015.
The UN states that the average household consumption expenditure in Africa is 20 per cent less than it was 25 years ago (despite the fact that the average annual rate of GDP for developing countries as a whole from 2.7 to 4.3 per cent from the 1980s to the 1990s).
In 1960 the combined incomes of the richest fifth of the world's population were 30 times greated than the poorest fifth. By 1991 they were over 60 times and in 1998, 78 times as high.
In the second half of the 1990s, one third of the world's willing to-work population was either unemployed or underemployed, the worse situation since the 1930s.
In 1997, 40 per cent of all children in the developing world under the age of five were underweight or starving. In 1996 the average daily intake of calories in the developing world was the same as in 1970. About 840m people worldwide are now malnourished.
The total debt burden developing and former Eastern bloc countries has increased 34 per cent since 1992, to $2.5 trillion in 2000, the Worldwatch Institute notes.
In 1947, external debt payments made up 92.3 per cent of the GDP of countries of socalled lowdevelopment.
Development assistance to developing nations has decreased in the past decade from $69bn in 1992 (in 2000 dollars) to $53bn in 2000. As a percentage of GNP, development and decreased from 0.33 per cent in 1992 to 0.22 per cent in 2000.
The UN High Commission for Refugees estimates that the number of refugees (forced from their homes because of political persecution armed conflict or environmental disasters) has growth from 2.7m in 1972 to 12.1m in 2000.
Globally, about 160,000 extra people are migrating to cities from the countryside every day, because rapid industrialisation of agriculture and imports of subsidised food are driving them off the land. Most migrants end up in booming squatter settlements or slums.
In
1997, 40 per cent of all children in the developing in the developing
world under the age of five were underweight or starving
Poverty of affluence
If a broader definition of poverty if considered, taking into account social and cultural indicators, poverty has increased in the industrialised world too.
For the 24 OECD countries for which data are available, the OECD reported that the average has almost tripled from 14.3 per cent in 1970 to 41.2 per cent in 1998.
An estimated 4,000-9,000 languages have disappeared in the last 500 years and its estimated that at least half and up to 90 per cent of the remaining 6,800 remaining languages will be extinct by the end of this century.
Prison rates in industralised countries have doubled from around 44 per 100,000 population in 1972 to around 88 per 100,000 population in 1992.
The OECD reported that in the last 30 years, suicide rates have increased by more than 10 per cent on average among the OECD countries.
In the United States, people living alone swelled from only 17 per cent of all household in 1970 to 26 per cent in 2000.
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